By mmweather.ygn, on May 22nd, 2014
ဘဂၤလားပင္လယ္ေအာ္ အေရွ႕အလယ္ပိုင္းတြင္ ျဖစ္ေပၚလွ်က္ရွိသည့္ ေလဖိအားနည္းရပ္ဝန္း INVEST 92B သည္ ေမလ ၂၂ ရက္ ျမန္မာစံေတာ္ခ်ိန္ ၁၈း၃ဝ နာရီတြင္ ရရွိသည့္ NRL data မ်ားမွ ပံုေဖၚရရွိခ်က္အရ ပုသိမ္ၿမိဳ႕ အေနာက္ဘက္ မိုင္ ၁၇ဝ ခန္႕၊ ေက်ာက္ျဖဴၿမိဳ႕ အေနာက္ေတာင္ဘက္ ၁၇၅ မိုင္ခန္႕၊ စစ္ေတြၿမိဳ႕၏ ေတာင္-အေနာက္ေတာင္ဘက္ ၁၉၇ မိုင္ခန္႕ ပင္လယ္ျပင္တြင္ ဆက္လက္တည္ရွိေနၿပီး လြန္ခဲ့ေသာ ၆ နာရီအတြင္း အေနာက္ဘက္သို႕ တစ္နာရီ ၃ မိုင္ႏွဳန္းခန္႕ျဖင့္ ေရြ႕လ်ားခဲ့ေၾကာင္း ေတြ႕ရပါသည္။ (ပံု-၁)
ေလဖိအားနည္းရပ္ဝန္း INVEST-92B
22 May 2014 1200Z
Location: 17.0 91.8
Winds: 30 knots
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
JTWC(Hawaii based Joint Typhoon Wwarning Center)မွ ေမလ ၂၂ ရက္ ၁၄းဝဝ နာရီတြင္ ထပ္မံ ထုတ္ျပန္ခ်က္တြင္ INVEST 92B ၁၂ နာရီမွ ၂၄ နာရီအတြင္း မုန္တိုင္း ျဖစ္လာႏိုင္ေျခ အဆင့္ HIGH မွာပင္ ရွိေနေသးေၾကာင္း ေတြ႕ရပါသည္။ (ပံု-၂)
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 080 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.6N 92.3E TO 20.0N 91.6E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 220600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 92.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 91.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 92.1E, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM SOUTH OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AND POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING AND FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION. A 220336Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A SLOPPY STRUCTURE WITH SEVERAL ISOLATED BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION MOSTLY LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. AN OLDER 220021Z WINDSAT PASS SHOWS A SLIGHT CONSOLIDATION IN THE LLCC WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY WHILE STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE DEEP CONVECTION IS RAIN-FLAGGED AND NOT CONSIDERED RELIABLE. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS BEING SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY GOOD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS VARYING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
ACM Credit To:MMweather Page
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